The Conference Board ™ Employment Trends Index (ETI) improved in October

NEW YORK, Nov. 8, 2021 / PRNewswire / – The Conference Board â„¢ Employment Trends Index (ETI) rose sharply in October. The index now stands at 112.23, compared to 109.68 in September.

“The increase in the employment trends index suggests strong job growth in the coming months,” said Gad Levanon, Director of the Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “As the negative economic impact of the Delta variant eases, spending and employment in in-person services is expected to continue to recover to pre-pandemic levels. We expect the unemployment rate to drop below 4% over the next six months. and could hit the pre-pandemic low of 3.5% by the end of 2022. In other words, labor shortages might not go away. In such an environment, significant upward pressure on wages could become the new normal. ”

The increase in the Employment Trends Index in October was due to the positive contributions of six of its eight components: initial unemployment insurance claims; Percentage of respondents who say they find “hard to get jobs”; Number of temporary employees; Actual manufacturing and trade sales; Industrial production; and the ratio of involuntary part-time workers to all part-time workers. The two exceptions were vacancies and the percentage of companies whose positions cannot be filled at present.

The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. The index’s turning points indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months. The Employment Trends Index is composed of eight leading employment indicators, each of which has been proven to be correct in its own domain. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight main employment indicators aggregated in the Employment Trends Index include:

  • Percentage of respondents who say they find “hard-to-get jobs” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
  • Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims (US Department of Labor)
  • Percentage of companies whose positions cannot be filled at the moment (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
  • Number of employees hired by the temporary help industry (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  • Ratio of involuntary part-time to all part-time workers (BLS)
  • Job offers (BLS) **
  • Industrial production (Federal Reserve) *
  • Real manufacturing and trade sales (US Bureau of Economic Analysis) **

* Statistical imputation for the recent month ** Statistical imputation for the two most recent months

The Conference Board releases the Employment Trends Index monthly at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday following the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s employment report each Friday. Technical Notes in this series are available on the Conference Board website:

About the Conference BoardThe Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that provides reliable information about the future. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity with 501 (c) (3) tax exempt status in the United States.

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SOURCE The Conference Board

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